Of Palin and Politics
I was cold-called today by the folks that run the Rasmussen Reports. I generally hang up on such calls, but today I was happy to participate in the political survey if only to register my voice of disaffection for both candidates of the major parties. (I was a supporter of Ron Paul and am likely to write in Ron Paul's name for President or vote for a third party candidate). The survey (among other items) asked a set of questions that gauged my general impression of the four Pres/VP nominees as well as my impression of the job performance of our current President using the following heirarchy: 1) very favorable, 2) slightly favorable, 3) slightly unfavorable, and 4) very unfavorable. I rated President Bush (as you might guess) using the "very unfavorable" selection. Sen. Obama, Sen. McCain, and Gov. Palin all received "slightly unfavorable" and Biden was given an equal share of disdain as President Bush received.

Much hay has been made lately of the Vice Presidential selections: Sen. Barack "The Change We Need" Obama selected Sen. Joe Biden (a 36-yr Washington insider); and Sen. John McCain selected the unknown Governor of Alaska, Governor Sarah Palin. The Palin pick is immediately interesting (to me) for the comparison to that of Sen. Obama's pick, Sen. Joe Biden. Sen. Biden detracts from all of Sen. Obama's strengths and adds little to Sen. Obama's so-called "weaknesses". For example, during the run up to the Iraq war in 2002, Sen. Biden was the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee. Biden was in a position to allow a real debate to be held on the rush to Iraq War, yet not a single "anti-war" voice was allowed to speak in those hearings. Of course (like so many others), Sen. Biden now regrets his vote in favor to authorize the use of US Armed Forces against Iraq - not because the Iraq War was wrong per se, but rather because the Executive Branch didn't do a great job with the implementation phase. Biden is certainly no Dick Cheney, but as one commentator put it... Biden is very "Cheney-esque" - in other words, business as usual.

Governor Palin on the other hand is pretty much a blank slate with regard to foreign policy matters. Many commentators (well, mainly bloggers) are making this molehill into quite a mountain; one has even suggested Palin will either resign or sabotage Sen. McCain's campaign in part because of this issue of inexperience. I remember another such governor with little to no foreign policy experience... he ran for the office of POTUS back in 2000 and has been our President ever since. Clearly inexperience in these matters is not that big of a deal to a large part of the US population.

The brilliance of the Gov. Palin pick (and it was a brilliant pick) is two-fold: 1) she complements Sen. McCain and fills in all the gaps and dispels many of the doubts the GOP base had with McCain, and 2) her pick sucked the air right out of Sen. Obama's sails heading out from the Democratic Convention and the media has been Palin-this, Palin-that ever since... the momentum shifted - big time - and the Democrats may be unable to regain it. Don't believe me? Check out the latest Rasmussen polls.

I read an article the other day on Daily Kos that basically said that Gov. Palin is "Bush in a skirt". Insulting? Yes. But actually - this is probably Gov. Palin's greatest asset. In a nation seeking "change" and "hope" who better to wave that banner than an ignorant, arrogant, (and perhaps angry) Governor hockey-mom with a grassroots-local-type of a appeal? This drama reminds me of articles I read back in 2000 during the primary leading up to then Gov. Bush's nomination. In one of the interviews with local small-town residents of some state (South Carolina I think), one such citizen responded to the reporter stating that he would be voting for Bush because *ahem* Bush once ran a Major League Baseball team and this citizen liked baseball. In other words, a lot of people - really, a lot - vote for someone that they can relate to, rather than someone that is the most capable person to lead the nation. It's a concept that the RNC understands all too well, but one that the DNC has never seemed to figure out. Exhibit A: President George W. Bush. Exhibit B: Two terms(!). QED.

Speaking of President Bush... he beat two opposing tickets that both featured two Democratic senators. Does the DNC (and really it must have been the DNC pulling the trigger on the Biden pick) honestly believe that another two-Senator ticket is going to be enough to get it done this time? With the Palin pick reaping dividends, I have my doubts... and I'm sure Sen. Obama is having doubts (about the Biden pick) as well.

So what does Gov. Palin bring to the table? She has single-handedly re-invigorated the GOP base that were always lukewarm to the "RINO" McCain. Furthermore, she strengthens Sen. McCain's bonafides with respect to energy policy... where McCain has a clear advantage. And what does Sen. Biden bring to the table? Not much really. However, he detracts significantly from Sen. Obama's reasonable foreign policy strengths. If you judge the presidential candidates by the choices they make rather than the promises they can easily break, then Sen. McCain makes a very strong case with his VP choice. Sen. Obama bombed with Biden.

So will (as a friend of mine suggests) Gov. Palin either resign or sabotage McCain's campaign? That would imply the Palin pick is incredibly bad... worse than Cheney (2000)? or Edwards (2004)? or even Dan Quayle (1988)? None of those three resigned and two of those three were winners, yet... all three of those are arguably much poorer picks than Gov. Palin (imho). Palin resign? The selection of Gov. Palin is not even the worst VP pick in 2008.